EASTERN CONFERENCE
Boston Celtics
Key Additions: Rasheed Wallace (Det), Marquis Daniels (Ind)
Key Losses: Leon Powe (Cle)
Prediction - 69-13 (1st in the East)
Now this is a bit of a homer pick but how can you go past the Celtics? They took last year's Eastern Conference Champions to 7 games without their best player on the court. Who knows what they may have done if the previous series against Chicago had ended a little more abrubtly than the 7 game slug out that will go down as one of the great playoff series of all time?
Glenn Davis, once famously seen crying after being beleagured by KG, now stepped in to the "Big Ticket's' shoes and helped Kendrick Perkins carry a severly under-manned Celtic front court. Perkins is back, trimmer-leaner and more seasoned. These two players will continue to produce this season. If they don't - well the Celtics can fall back on oh...only Kevin Garnett and Rasheed Wallace.
Rasheed is on the downside of his carrier but he will firt in perfectly with the Celtic lockerroom. He still has a solid back to the basket game and has greater than KG on the perimeter.
Now I know the big if with everyone predicting the Celtics is: Can KG recover from his injury? Well throughout this whole season preview I'm going to assume KG does return to full fitness after 3 weeks of play and he plays the whole season. If I start including injury variables then I may as well say LeBron James could do his ACL and the Cavs win 5 games for the whole year.
Let's look at the backcourt. Paul Pierce and Ray Allen are getting older, but there games will not change. Paul Pierce can still get to the rim at will and is a master at drawing the foul. Ray Allen may have lost a step or two but his shot is still as deadly as ever. Throw in Eddie House for some more shooting and a more experienced Rajan Rondo you have a deep team 1 through 7. That's not even taking into account the pick-up of Marquis Daniels from Indiana. Don't forget - he used to be ahead of Josh Howard in Nellie's Dallas rotation.
So all in all what do you get with the C's? A veteran team where its the Larry Obrien Trophy or bust. They will be focused all season, KG will make sure of that. They are great defensively with Perkins, Garnett and Rondo. Have 3 point shooters at every position (I didnt even mention Scalabrine) to open up the lane for one of the best young point guards in the game who's jump shot is improving all the time.
I expect the Celtics to beat the Cavaliers in 6 games in the Eastern Confernce Finals.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Key Additions - Shaquille O'Neal (Pho), Leon Powe (Bos), Anthony Parker (Tor), Jamario Moon (Mia)
Key Losses -
Prediction 68-14 (2nd in East)
I'm sorry Cleveland natives but LeBron will be clocking off from his Cleveland shift in May of 2010 after an admirable, but disappointing early end to his 4th playoff run with the Cavaliers.
The main question to ask is. Are Cleveland better with Shaquille O'neal in the line-up? The answer is no. 'The Diesel' still has a bit of juice in the tank, but is too much of a liability defensively to warrant having him on court clogging up the lane for Lebron. Big Z wants out of Cleveland and its easy to understand why. He and Lebron were tight, Big Z, along with Mo Williams being the best kick out shooters for Cleveland. What does Zydrunas have to show for his clutch shooting and rebounding over the lsat two years? A seat on the pine.
But let's jsut assume for a minute that Shaq fits in with Mike Brown's system. Shaq will be a better target inside, but a poor finisher, effective only around 10 feet. But this won't matter. His job will be to fade and provide a last second target to Lebron - who will find him being one of the best passers in basketball. You can expect a slightly poorer production from Shaq than Z and a lower field goal percentage, but a boost in a presence around the basket. If a Varejo or Powe are on the floor with him you have a fantastic rebounding team.
Where the team has truly developed over the last few years is in the back-court. Firstly bringing in Mo Williams and Delonte West. Now Anthony Parker. Throw in Daniel Gibson and everything looks pretty good. Unfortunately though, this team just doesn't stack up to Boston offensively - especially when you look down the bench.
Orlando Magic
Key Additions - Vince Carter (N.J.), Brandon Bass (Dal), Matt Barnes (Pho)
Key Losses - Hedo Turkoglu (Tor), Courtney Lee (N.J)
Prediction - 58 - 24 (3rd in East)
How do you replace the Turkish wonder? With Vince Carter. Is this a trade up or a trade down? Well it all depends on Vince and Stan Van Gundy. On the one hand V.C could embrace the opportunity and return to his 'Air Canada' days minus a few thousand feet feeling a drive and determination of being on a team that expects to win. On the other hand he could have tghe lethargic 'Meh' attitude of his 2nd cousin Tracey McGrady. Which Vince will show up? If its the latter you can expect Vince to be shipped out of Orlando quicker than a misbehaving teenager at Disneyworld.
I like what the Magic have done, I don't quite know why they kept Martin Gortat, but it certainly does give them an imposing 3 man rotation in the Power Forward-Centre spots. He will once again see limied minutes behind Dwight Howard. Brandon Bass could see more minutes at the 4. He has a keen knack for the rebound. Hypathetically - if Howard and Bass were on the floor at the same time you could basically just throw the ball at the ring from anywhere and they'll snare down the board and put it back. They could dominate the glass all season.
But today's game calls for a more versatile 4 such as Lewis, which will mean leaving their greatest strengths riding the pine. Don't under estimate the loss of Courtney Lee. I see him as a cross between Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince - not just because of the face-mask either. He was a long, quick, slasher who will be sorely missed. Sure you still have Mikeal Pietrus, but his game is still limited to the perimeter.
A healthy Jameer Neilson is the real key. He is the engine of this team and how far Orlando go will rest on his shoulders. Does he have enough experience to make the right decisions?
In short - I am not convinced about this team. They are more talented in the forward centre spots, but they wont see any minutes unless Van Gundy overhauls how his team plays basketball. Vince is a downgrade from Hedo - and that's a fact. Vince takes lazy shots. I hope he proves me wrong because I would love to see Vinsanity unleash the fury.
Washington Wizards
Key Additions - Mike Miller (Min), Randy Foye (Min), Fabricio Oberto (S.A)
Key Losses - Etan Thomas, Darius Songalia (Dal)
Prediction - 50 - 32 (4th in East)
With a healthy Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler in his prime, a solid -versatile vet at the 4 in Antawn Jamison and recent additions of Miller and Foy, the Wizards are the team to look out for in the East. Centre is their only weak spot.
Deshawn Stevenson is a solid 2 guard. Miller, Foy, Arenas, Stevenson and Butler will be a solid rotation at spots 1 through 3. But what about 4-5. All I see is Antawn Jamison.
Fabricio Oberto is now merely a foul absorber. Hopefully Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee can step up. That's right. Who?
Don't understimate the Wizards though, they are the 2005-06 Phoenix Suns and Flip Saunders is the perfect coach for this group of explosive players. This team could do anything. Don't be suprised to see one of the biggest turnarounds similar to the Celtics first season with KG and Jesus Shuttleworth.
Chicago (5th)
Key Additions - Janero Pargo (N.O)
Key Losses - Ben Gordon (Det)
Prediction - 47 - 35 (4th in East)
Are the Bulls once again on the rise? Most definetly. This team can build around Derrick Rose and Tyrus Thonmas. Luol Deng is a question mark but the Bulls will have plenty of cap space in the coming years to snare that markee player. Say an Amare Stoudamire.
Ben Gordon is a loss for the Bulls who suddenly have thinned out a normal sized rotation in the back-court. John Salmons has shown he is a reasonable number 3 option behind Deng and Rose.
Make no mistake though, this team is now clearly led by Derrick Rose. His break out performance in the first round of last year's playoffs against Rajan Rondo and the Boston Celtics cemented his arrival as a star of the league. While not as good defensively as Rondo he does have a better jump shot and is a much better finisher. Rose does need someone to pass the ball too. Luol Deng is no Scottie Pippen,. so it will be interesting to see how this team develops. Deng and Thomas a explosive finsihers while Kirk Hinrich is a reliable 3-point shooter and dogged defender.
Atlanta (6th)
Key Additions - Jamal Crawford (G.S), Joe Smith (Cle)
Key Losses -
Prediction - 45 - 37 (4th in East)
The Hawks have been on the rise for the past 4 seasons straight, but unfortunately for the franchise this will be the year when they drop down from last year.
Joe Johnson has not become the star he looked like he would be while in a Suns uniform. Mike Bibby is a major liability on defense and has dropped off as a ballhandler and fascillitator.
Marvin Williams has become a solid player at small forward. His continued development should take some of the load off Johnson, which is definetly needed to help open up his game. Maybe he just doesn't need the pressure of being the go to guy. Jamal Crawford has gone under the radar a bit as the pickup. Slide him in as a better scorer than Josh Childress from a couple of years ago, or even a Flip Murray replacement.
Josh Smith is Mr Versatility - excluding shooting that is. Just bring your shooting up to a Shawn Marion standard or something and you will be a dynamic player. But unfortunately for the Hawks, and in fact himself, it doesn't look like Josh will be a star of the league
Al Horford is still a young centre but continues to develop. Along with Zaza Pachullia they are a more than serviceable duo in the paint.
Detroit Pistons (7th )
Key Additions - Ben Gordon (Chi), Charlie Villanueva (Mil), Chris Willcox,
Ben Wallace (Cle)
Key Losses - Rasheed Wallace (Bos), Antonio McDyess (S.A)
Prediction 43 -39
The new era of the Pistons is officially here.
But is Ben Gordon really who they want? Hopefully he sees himself as a Vinnie Johnson and not a Joe Dumars. Otherwise expet the same problems the Pistons experienced with the Iverson/Hamilton starting role.
Charlie Villaneava is loving it. He got paid and I'm suprised to see he'll be starting. At the moment it looks like Chris Wilcox will slot in behind Charlie at power forward, but Wilcox is a work horse type player that should start.
Where the Pistons really struggle is at the Centre. Kwame Browne? Yuck. Ben Wallace is back but a mere shadow of his former self. These two dont provide any target down low but should saturate the fouls necessary to provide a serviceable defense at best in the paint.
Jason Maxiell is their secret weapon. I'd like to see him start alongside, Prince, Hamilton, Stuckey and either Charlie V or Willcox with Kwame Browne and Ben Wallace coming off the bench. Maxiell has a wing span as big as a condor, runs hard and is athletic.
In short, Joe Dumars made moves he had to make, just not necessarily the right ones.
Toronto (8th)
Key Additions - Hedo Turkoglu (Orl), Amir Johnson (Det), Jarret Jack (Por)
Key Losses - Anthony Parker (Cle)
Prediction - 42-40
No one seems to want to have anything to do with the Toronto Raptors this year. Mostly because it will undoubtdly be Chris Bosh's last year in Canada. But if you look at this team - all they need to do is bring in Dirk Nowitzki to replace him next year and you basically have the European All-stars
What this team needs is a focused Chris Bosh. But guess what? They wont get it. If they had a focused Bosh you could argue that no-one would want to face this team in the playoffs.
Jose Calderon is a premier distributor. Turkoglu is a major pick up. His slashing/shooting combo makes him the go to man down the stretch.
Then we have the poor man's Dirk Nowitzi in Andrea Bargnani. After a slow first years he has finally matured into a reliable player. he will need to be that this year.
An equally valuable addition to the Raptors core group is Jarret Jack. He is a solid combo guard who should see heavy minutes.
The Raptors are a great perimeter team, but probably just come up short in the slashing/inside game. Bosh is a star, but beyond that he needs front court help. So enter Amir Johnson and Reggie Evans. These two should prove a good back-up down low for Bosh giving them a much needed injection of toughness.
But still, you look at the Raptors and despite their skill they are a team that can be pushed around and bullied out of a contest. Can you imagine them playing Boston or Cleveland? They will wet their pants.
Boston
Cleveland
Orlando
Washington
Chicago
Atlanta
Detroit
Toronto
Cleveland and Boston are a clear 1-2 and its simply a waiting game for these two to meet in the Eastern Confernece. Regular season will be just practise for these two and if they can be all they can be it will be one of the greatest playoff series of all time.
Orlando - Sorry but you wont be back. A clear third place in my opinion and after that? Well Washington are unproven but should finish fourth. From fifth through 10th you could argue its a wash. None of these teams will challenge Boston or Cleveland and are either looking for playoff experience for their team, developing a young nucleus or waiting for the 2010 free agency super sweepstakes.
On the cusp - Piliidelphia and Charlotte. I wouldnt be suprised if Charlotte finished has high as 6th after all is said and done. Coach Larry Brown really saw some promise last season and made some handy pickups.
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